Another loser you should add are customers of the failing software business who are mostly locked in — you can see who they are on the MicroStrategy website, a lot of huge names in business there that have had to endure the following:
a) a company mostly making money from consulting / support services because their software sucks
b) a distracted (technically former) CEO
c) company is taking on debt to buy a risk asset instead of reinvesting into the core business
These often big, legacy enterprise customers and government contracts were responsible for MicroStrategy’s initial success in the late 90s/2000s
It is interesting that there is a mathematical model of a Ponzi scheme. https://mysite.science.uottawa.ca/rsmith43/MAT3395/PonziProject.pdf. You just have to add two non-ponzi factors to the model. One is that people who want to launder illicit cash will accept 5-10 % loss as a cost of doing that type of business. The second is that people can create a bitcoin for less that the current "value" of the Bitcoin. https://nftevening.com/bitcoin-mining-cost/
Can I ask how the $1.95bn annual fresh capital requirement is calculated? My understanding is that Minsky moment can only come in 2027 if BTC stays below a certain price level by then, the STRK / STRF dividends will have some ongoing cash pressures but workable if they continue to ATM common at the current mNAV premium
Is calculated based on the total debt that must be paid to 2030(accumulated to raise the cash they raised till now) divided by year + an estimation of ~200M that is the cost of the software business after the P&L, basically how much they loose with it after revenues.
Excellent analysis. If you want to see what he's been up to lately, check out my analysis of his monologue about the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve here: https://youtu.be/cMa9yHf5wbI
Another loser you should add are customers of the failing software business who are mostly locked in — you can see who they are on the MicroStrategy website, a lot of huge names in business there that have had to endure the following:
a) a company mostly making money from consulting / support services because their software sucks
b) a distracted (technically former) CEO
c) company is taking on debt to buy a risk asset instead of reinvesting into the core business
These often big, legacy enterprise customers and government contracts were responsible for MicroStrategy’s initial success in the late 90s/2000s
It is interesting that there is a mathematical model of a Ponzi scheme. https://mysite.science.uottawa.ca/rsmith43/MAT3395/PonziProject.pdf. You just have to add two non-ponzi factors to the model. One is that people who want to launder illicit cash will accept 5-10 % loss as a cost of doing that type of business. The second is that people can create a bitcoin for less that the current "value" of the Bitcoin. https://nftevening.com/bitcoin-mining-cost/
Good article but you missed the levered ETFs that crank up the volatility even more.
Verified my gut feel. Thx
Can I ask how the $1.95bn annual fresh capital requirement is calculated? My understanding is that Minsky moment can only come in 2027 if BTC stays below a certain price level by then, the STRK / STRF dividends will have some ongoing cash pressures but workable if they continue to ATM common at the current mNAV premium
Is calculated based on the total debt that must be paid to 2030(accumulated to raise the cash they raised till now) divided by year + an estimation of ~200M that is the cost of the software business after the P&L, basically how much they loose with it after revenues.
Michael Saylor was last seen curled in a ball on the floor of his shower crying after people started reading this. Great work.
Complimenti ottima lucida analisi 👍🏻
Excellent analysis. If you want to see what he's been up to lately, check out my analysis of his monologue about the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve here: https://youtu.be/cMa9yHf5wbI